The Bank of England’s latest Monetary Policy Report projects headline inflation will crest at about 4.0% in September 2025, up from the 3.7% peak it estimated in June. Weaker progress against price pressures means the central bank now expects quarterly consumer-price growth to return to its 2% target in the second quarter of 2027, one quarter later than previously forecast. Food prices are seen rising particularly sharply, with the BoE predicting food inflation will reach roughly 5.5% at the end of 2025, compared with a June forecast of 4.5%. Officials attribute the acceleration to a higher minimum wage, a new packaging tax, increased national-insurance costs and firmer global commodity prices. Based on current market interest-rate expectations, the BoE assumes the policy rate will ease to 3.8% by the fourth quarter of 2025, 3.5% in late 2026 and 3.6% at the end of 2027. Under those assumptions, the economy is projected to expand 1.25% in both 2025 and 2026 and to pick up to 1.5% in 2027.