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Copper futures on the COMEX experienced a sharp intraday decline of up to 20% as a massive arbitrage trade unwound, marking a significant reversal from a previous spike to $5.96 per pound in July 2025. Analysts have drawn parallels between the current copper price movement and the 2008 crude oil crash, suggesting a potential reversion toward $3 to $4 per pound. This downturn is occurring amid broader commodity market cooling in China, where the most active coking coal futures fell nearly 8% intraday, and capital outflows have been noted in ferrous and new energy commodities. The price movements in copper are also being analyzed in the context of Chinese deflationary pressures and government bond yields, which may influence the metal's trajectory. Market forecasts had anticipated a decline of around 15% in copper prices by September 2025, aligning with recent market developments.
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Is $3 Next for Copper After $5? Parallels to 2008 Crude Oil - WTI crude oil is about 50% below 2008's apex of $147 a barrel, and copper's July $5.96 high may have enduring peak parallels. The deflationary implications of typical autocorrelation in the economically sensitive metal https://t.co/ji7Eomqo0h
China Deflation May Guide Copper, Treasuries - The per-pound price of copper, US and Chinese government 10-year bond yields (CGB) and S&P 500 on the same scale may emphasize the implications of the metal's next move. My bias is down, with CGB yields around 1.71% Full report on https://t.co/RhejqTbBVy
