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Top stories

Pakistan Downs Indian Rafale With Chinese J-10C in 200-Km Missile Strike

Pakistan Downs Indian Rafale With Chinese J-10C in 200-Km Missile Strike

Authors

3

1 hour ago

Nintendo Lifts Switch Prices in US After Canada Hike Amid Tariff Pressures

Nintendo Lifts Switch Prices in US After Canada Hike Amid Tariff Pressures

Authors

40

23 hours ago

Berkshire Profit Falls 4% as Kraft Heinz Charge, Tariff Warning Bite

Company Earnings

Berkshire Profit Falls 4% as Kraft Heinz Charge, Tariff Warning Bite

Authors

15

31 minutes ago

Commerce Turmoil Freezes Thousands of US Export Licenses, Nvidia Shipments Stalled

Authors

6

21 hours ago

Company Earnings

Coinbase Slides 16% as One-Off Gains Mask Softer Core Business

Authors

11

19 hours ago

Fed Dissenters Waller and Bowman Urge Early Rate Cut to Shield Jobs

Authors

17

1 day ago

Fed’s Hammack Sees Tariff-Driven Inflation Rise as Hiring Momentum Fades

Authors

7

23 hours ago

Company Earnings

Analysts Boost Amazon Targets to as High as $297 After Q2 Beat

Authors

3

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Chinese

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5248082

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

US military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded

Chinese mainland bombed

Taiwan surrenders

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Japanese military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

China attacks Japan

Food shortages in China

Oil shortages in China

Philippines attacked by Chinese

Guam attacked by Chinese

Philippines allows use of airbases

South Korea allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Japan attacked by Chinese

South Korean military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Indian military intervention

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

US destroys TSMC factories

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

75

70

68

61

56

56

55

54

54

48

48

48

47

47

45

44

43

42

41

40

39

38

37

36

33

33

33

31

28

24

19

12

10

US tariff rate on Chinese goods at end of 2025?

Apr 3, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5944644

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

35%chance

9025779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 8:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

1324441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

957

Was the Chinese balloon actually a spy balloon?

Feb 5, 4:02 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

79.18%chance

10411450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2547

1566

Will members of the 2024 Chinese Olympic swim team be found to have been doping?

Aug 5, 7:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.41%chance

103561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

724

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

65.1%chance

381429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

900

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

Apr 20, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

171096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

972

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.25%chance

22545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

934

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

119

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

60.81%chance

13379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

842

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

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