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Top stories

Pentagon Orders Microsoft Audit After Ending Chinese Support for Defense Cloud

US Domestic Policy

Pentagon Orders Microsoft Audit After Ending Chinese Support for Defense Cloud

Authors

18

11 months ago

Modi to Meet Xi in First China Visit in Seven Years Amid U.S. Tariff Rift

US Foreign Policy

Modi to Meet Xi in First China Visit in Seven Years Amid U.S. Tariff Rift

Authors

18

11 months ago

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

Authors

28

11 months ago

Japan Accelerates First Long-Range Type-12 Missile Deployment to Kumamoto Base

Authors

10

11 months ago

Company Earnings

Remy Cointreau Trims Tariff Bill and Raises Profit Outlook

Authors

6

11 months ago

White House Economists Warn Tariffs Threaten Near-Term U.S. Growth

Authors

5

11 months ago

Company Earnings

Li Auto Lifts Margins but Warns of 40% Q3 Sales Drop; Shares Rebound

Authors

11

11 months ago

Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990

Authors

12

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Chinese

Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6457546

OptionProbability

China sanctioned by US + Europe

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Japan attacked by Chinese

China attacks Japan

Malacca Strait blockaded

Guam attacked by Chinese

Oil shortages in China

US destroys TSMC factories

US military intervention

Japanese military intervention

Taiwan surrenders

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Philippines allows use of airbases

Philippines attacked by Chinese

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

Chinese mainland bombed

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

Food shortages in China

South Korea allows use of airbases

South Korean military intervention

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

European military intervention

Indian military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Tactical nuclear weapon used

Nuclear weapon used against civilians

78

75

69

67

67

61

60

55

54

54

52

51

50

50

49

47

42

42

41

40

40

40

40

39

39

38

37

35

33

31

31

12

10

Was the Chinese balloon actually a spy balloon?

Feb 5, 4:02 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

79.18%chance

10411450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2547

1566

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

64.68%chance

391435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

889

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.99%chance

23555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

931

Will there be evidence of at least 5000 mixed Chinese-Africans born in Africa through 2030?

Sep 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.49%chance

17551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

919

Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?

Jun 5, 12:15 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

34.58%chance

12540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1375

727

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

119

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Dec 7, 1:29 PMMar 2, 11:00 AM

61.65%chance

13399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

862

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.72%chance

15185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

1030

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Nov 16, 11:26 AMNov 24, 5:59 AM

43.84%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

884

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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