Recent analyses highlight the real risk of a renminbi devaluation amid China's economic strategies. The country's real effective exchange rate has reverted to its 2014 level, undoing a decade of steady currency appreciation. This shift is seen as an attempt by China to boost exports and manage economic challenges, including deflation risks. Experts like George Magnus from the Financial Times argue that if China continues to prioritize monetary easing over fiscal support, this could worsen its financial imbalances and exacerbate issues like overproduction. The potential devaluation of the renminbi is viewed as a significant economic maneuver that could impact global currency dynamics, including the status of the US dollar. Additionally, the 2016 Shanghai Accord has been disrupted, and there is building momentum for a fall in the Chinese Yuan.
In this column, I argue there’s little point and much risk if the Yuan is allowed to drop significantly, but it could happen regardless 1/5 Risk of a renminbi devaluation is real via @FT https://t.co/KtQmlEh9aR
2016 Shanghai Accord smashed. Momentum for a fall in #CNY is building....great article @georgemagnus1 Risk of a renminbi devaluation is real - https://t.co/LMbE3Xc3rP via @FT
George Magnus: "If fiscal support is limited and monetary easing prevails, a weaker renminbi will aggravate China’s deeply embedded financial imbalances and its endemic proclivity to overproduction and exports." https://t.co/oJ1sqKZ6Tc via @ft