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Top stories

US Imposes 19% Tariff on Pakistani Exports After Trade Deal, Offers Oil Reserves Support; Pakistan-China Salt Exports Rise 33%

US Imposes 19% Tariff on Pakistani Exports After Trade Deal, Offers Oil Reserves Support; Pakistan-China Salt Exports Rise 33%

Authors

5

16 hours ago

FBI Opens Office in Wellington, New Zealand to Counter China and Cybercrime, Citing Five Eyes Alliance Priorities

US Foreign Policy

FBI Opens Office in Wellington, New Zealand to Counter China and Cybercrime, Citing Five Eyes Alliance Priorities

Authors

6

1 day ago

Crypto Exchange Volume Hits $1.7 Trillion in July, Binance Leads; DEXs $435B, Bitcoin Top Asset; US Loan Market Hits $222B Record

Crypto Exchange Volume Hits $1.7 Trillion in July, Binance Leads; DEXs $435B, Bitcoin Top Asset; US Loan Market Hits $222B Record

Authors

7

12 hours ago

US Foreign Policy

Trump Opens Door to Talks With Lula on 50% Tariffs

Authors

7

11 hours ago

Fed’s Bostic Says Job-Market Slowdown Wouldn’t Alter Latest FOMC Call

Authors

6

18 hours ago

US-Switzerland Trade Talks Stall Over Surging Pharma Exports

Authors

4

21 hours ago

US Domestic Policy

Trump Warns of Growing Dissents on Fed Board

Authors

8

21 hours ago

IMF Approves $2 Billion Disbursement to Argentina Under Milei, Grants Reserve Waiver After First Review

Authors

12

1 day ago

Prediction markets for US

Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?

Jun 1, 8:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.88%chance

10111142232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22711

4746

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Jan 10, 6:40 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

710774422

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

Gretchen Whitmer

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Andy Beshear

Marco Rubio

No 2028 Election

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ivanka Trump

Tulsi Gabbard

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

JB Pritzker

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elon Musk

Tucker Carlson

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Mark Kelly

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Mike Gallagher

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

27

22

9

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

27.02%chance

223346250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136850

82269

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.09%chance

455323493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

2492

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149198794

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

61

21

16

2

0

0

0

0

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68101700

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Other

Christine Pelosi

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

64

20

14

1

1

1

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

949

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM

52.2%chance

11846361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10906

9055

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.23%chance

4017224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21518

5099

Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally?

Nov 5, 11:09 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

67.61%chance

105910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14293

7078

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

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17 days ago
Jul 16, 2025
Jul 16, 2025
Syria
War
US Foreign Policy
US Special Representative Tom Barrack Condemns Violence in Southern Syria’s Suwayda, Urges Accountability and Dialogue for Lasting Ceasefire
Authors
11
17 days ago
Jul 16, 2025
Jul 16, 2025
Europe
War
Politics
Denmark, Sweden Back Financing US Patriot Missiles for Ukraine in Trump’s Multi-Billion NATO Arms Plan; Norway Prioritizes Delivery
Authors
14
17 days ago
Jul 16, 2025
Jul 16, 2025
Britain
Tariffs
Economics
Trump Plans Pharma Tariffs Starting Low By End Of July With 1-1.5 Year Grace, Raising To 200%, Coordination With UK, Semiconductors Next
Authors
23
17 days ago
Jul 16, 2025
Jul 16, 2025
Japan
Economics
Business
Bank of Japan Minutes Show Doubts on 2015 Easing, Low Real Rates, USD/JPY Forecast to Reach 150
Authors
11
17 days ago
Jul 15, 2025
Jul 15, 2025
Canada
Economics
Business
Canadian Swap Market Sees 13% Chance of Bank of Canada Rate Cut on July 30 as Inflation Persists, Canadian Dollar Declines
Authors
7
17 days ago
Jul 15, 2025
Jul 15, 2025
Europe
Economics
Business
Bank of America Survey: 31% of Fund Managers Underweight US Dollar Amid 10% Decline, Euro Faces Worst Week Since 2022 Over Trade Concerns
Authors
14
18 days ago
Jul 14, 2025
Jul 14, 2025
War
US Foreign Policy
Tariffs
Trump Threatens Russia With 100% Tariffs Unless Ukraine Deal Reached in 50 Days
Authors
114
19 days ago
Jul 14, 2025
Jul 14, 2025
Brazil
Tariffs
Economics
Dollar Hits Lowest Since August 2024 Before Rising on Trump’s 50% Tariffs; Ibovespa Falls Amid IOF, Inflation, China GDP Concerns
Authors
17
19 days ago
Jul 11, 2025
Jul 11, 2025
Automobile
Business
Tech
Tesla Promotes $7,500 US EV Incentive, FSD Tech, Free Canadian Supercharging, and $3,000 Australia Lease Offer Ahead of September Deadline
Authors
4
21 days ago

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