The latest earnings season for companies in the S&P 500 has concluded with results that have notably exceeded expectations on both top and bottom lines. More than 60% of companies surpassed forecasts, marking one of the best earnings seasons in approximately four years, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. Analysts have been rapidly raising earnings estimates for the current quarter at the fastest pace in nearly four years, with 58% of companies increasing their full-year 2025 guidance, double the share seen in the first quarter. This strong performance has contributed to the S&P 500's rally, which has climbed 29% from its lows in April and currently stands 9.7% higher for the year. Factors supporting these results include companies' ability to mitigate the impact of tariffs and benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar. Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, trade disputes, and a cooling job market, investor confidence remains robust. Upcoming earnings reports from major retailers such as Walmart and Target are expected to provide further insights into consumer resilience amid rising tariffs. The retail sector has risen 4.9% in 2025, trailing the broader S&P 500 but outperforming since a tariff reprieve in early April. However, there is some divergence in earnings expectations within the retail industry, with Walmart facing negative earnings revisions while Target's outlook has been more conservative.
This week's earnings from retailers such as Walmart, $WMT, and Target, $TGT, will show how American consumers are faring as tariffs start to take hold. @DianeKingHall gives us a preview, and some may already be debating whether to add additional items to their cart. 🛒 For https://t.co/FLlHSTpiTL
Going into earnings, I like WMT at (10%) and TGT at 5%. What an expectations mismatch. TGT earnings outlook has been really tamped down and WMT has negative earnings revisions. Feels like a wrong-way set of embedded expectations on tariffs.
Analysts earnings revisions are surging. Meeting those rising expectations will require a surge in earnings far beyond the concentrated AI-driven tech earnings we've seen lately. https://t.co/jwAOEL81f3