The S&P 500 futures contract ($ES_F) has exhibited a predominantly bullish trend from late June through July 2025, with traders consistently noting bullish imbalances and biases during various trading sessions. Key support and resistance zones have been identified repeatedly, including initial support levels around 6125.75-6135.75 and aggressive support zones near 6385-6396.25, which have been described as critical for signaling market strength. Resistance levels have ranged from the low 6300s to all-time highs around 6329.25-6335.50 and 6361.25-6364.25, with sellers active at these points. The market has experienced periods of rebalancing and choppy trading, with some sessions showing bearish biases and close patterns. Volume data from July 25 indicate large imbalances in market-on-open (MOO) orders, with 265.6 million shares for the S&P 500, 2.0 million for the NASDAQ 100, and 33.0 million for the Dow 30, while the MAG 7 group showed a negative imbalance of 8.3 million shares. Analysts emphasize the importance of earnings season and EPS estimate revisions in explaining recent market movements, including a 19% drop earlier in the year and a 27% rally in the S&P 500 since April 8. Traders have highlighted the presence of value buyers stepping in on declines of 3-5 points in $ES_F, supporting the market's resilience. Overall, the market shows a cautious but bullish outlook with key technical levels guiding trading decisions as it seeks new all-time highs.
#ES_F Looking for overnight ATH #daytrading https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS https://t.co/LSXiBsvMJM
Yep, any 3-5 point decline in $ES_F brings in the value buyers! https://t.co/UaAjSvU49z
The next quarter EPS estimate revisions after co's report earnings explain it all: the Oct 12, 2022 bull market birth, this year’s -19% drop, and the +27% S&P 500 rally since April 8. #Earnings matter if you know how to read them. $SPY #EarningsSeason https://t.co/lmfKoqdF3I