The E-mini S&P 500 futures (#ES_F) market has exhibited fluctuating trading patterns from late June through July 2025, characterized by alternating bullish and bearish imbalances. Early sessions showed a bullish bias with attempts to reach new all-time highs (ATH), including overnight record highs revisited during regular trading hours. However, the market also experienced periods of bearish imbalance and choppy trading, particularly in early to mid-July. Towards the end of July, the market displayed a bearish intraday shift as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY) surged past its 5-day average daily range (ADR) to 134%, followed by a red opening candle and an initial balance breakdown, signaling weakness despite a bullish outside day and a modest 1.4% retracement. Overnight inventory positions were reported as 100% long for $ES and $NQ futures. The overall trading activity suggests a market oscillating between bullish attempts to set new highs and bearish corrections, with institutional and retail flows influencing price action.
Following @edgeful data helps: $SPY ripped through its 5-day ADR, hitting 134%. The red opening candle set the tone early, & the IB breakdown confirmed a bearish intraday shift. Even with a bullish outside day, the bounce was weak—just a 1.4% retrace—signaling likely a gap fill. https://t.co/YlJOFzdq89
#ES_F AM session (Bullish traps) #daytrading https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS https://t.co/HD1rA01xDD
#ES_F Look above and fail setup. #daytrading https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS https://t.co/nVcr2DFYcG