Leading into the New York market open on May 23, 2025, cross-asset models showed mixed signals for the S&P 500 index, initially indicating a modest gain of 0.06% before shifting to a projected loss of 0.69% as futures declined by 1.36%. Commodity signals were the most bullish early on, while global equities and rates showed weaker sentiment. Over the preceding 20 days, the S&P 500 consistently outperformed risk-correlated global asset signals by approximately 4.33% to 5.05%. Market breadth remains strong, with 84% of MSCI country equity indices trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In the Q1 2025 earnings season, 78% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings per share (EPS) estimates, surpassing the five- and ten-year averages of 77% and 75%, respectively. However, only 63% of companies have beaten revenue estimates, which is below the five- and ten-year averages of 69% and 64%. Eight companies have withdrawn or failed to update their annual EPS guidance, though more than half have maintained their previously issued guidance for fiscal year 2025. Globally, equities excluding the U.S. have reached new all-time highs with solid country breadth, suggesting a breakout phase following a recent market shakeout.
63% of $SPX companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q1, which is below the 5-year average of 69% and below the 10-year average of 64%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/u29GIVy4R8 https://t.co/mvil5Pnii7
After the Shakeout comes the Breakout. Global equities (ex-US) have broken out to new all time highs with country breadth running at solid levels. On unthinkables: https://t.co/gnj1gUwBVm https://t.co/kz9vE9KBz8
78% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q1, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 75%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/u29GIVy4R8 https://t.co/qq3hfEiHnz