The S&P 500 index has reported strong first-quarter earnings results, with 78% of its constituent companies beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates, surpassing the five-year average of 77% and the ten-year average of 75%. However, only 62% of these companies have beaten revenue estimates, which is below the five-year average of 69% and the ten-year average of 64%. Year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 stands at 13.6%, exceeding the March 31 estimate of 7.1%, while revenue growth is 4.8%, also above the earlier estimate of 4.3%. Valuation metrics indicate that the forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 21.4, higher than the five-year average of 19.9 and the ten-year average of 18.3. The trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 25.9, above the five-year average of 24.8 and the ten-year average of 22.4. These elevated P/E ratios suggest that investors are currently paying a premium for earnings compared to historical levels. Analysts note that comparing earnings yields to U.S. Treasury yields provides insight into the compensation investors receive for holding riskier equities over safer government bonds. According to Professor Aswath Damodaran, stocks appear more reasonably priced when assessed by this method, though he emphasizes its use for valuing individual stocks rather than guiding decisions on the overall index. The Wall Street Journal highlighted these valuation metrics as key indicators of current stock market expense and their implications for future performance.
Right now, Prof. Aswath Damodaran’s calculation suggests that stocks are more reasonably priced than other metrics—although Prof. D uses it as a tool to value individual stocks, rather than a guide to buying or selling the overall index, chart @WSJecon .com https://t.co/6TD3N6qcu6
Investors can then compare stocks’ #earnings yields with yields on UST. That offers a sense of how much investors are being compensated to hold riskier investments over ultra safe Govt bonds, chart @WSJecon .com https://t.co/y6KZq6s2WV
When the whole S&P 500 is looked at, all 3 metrics currently show investors paying a high price for every dollar of #earnings compared with what they have paid in the past, chart @WSJecon .com https://t.co/zHtl4ATEKc https://t.co/Ou1FqBnLXF