
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February nonfarm payrolls report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed expect job growth to range between 30,000 and 300,000, with a consensus estimate of 160,000 to 170,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate projected to remain steady at 4.0%. Forecasts indicate average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year. January's payrolls saw an increase of 143,000 jobs, with upward revisions to prior months' data. The participation rate is expected to remain at 62.6%, while the underemployment rate (U6) is projected at 7.5%. Labor market indicators show conflicting trends. The ADP private sector jobs report showed a gain of only 77,000 jobs, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 172,000 layoffs, including DOGE-related cuts. Seasonal adjustments and state and local government hiring trends may also influence the final numbers.
Feb's ADP print of only 77k private sector jobs was disappointing, but not enough to push the forecast for nonfarm payrolls tomorrow into the red; even though the correlation here isn't great, the lower bound of the 90% CI is still positive: https://t.co/97y1UUp3OY
February Payrolls Preview: Not As Bad As Feared https://t.co/i3GVkDltnE
The Feb Non-Farm Payrolls report is coming, and all signs point to WEAK job growth 📉. Even if job losses are moderated, investors will be watching March numbers closely. The chance of a miss? HIGH. Here’s how the other job market indicators stack up 👇 https://t.co/xtgdKX6uNa


