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AI Causes 10,000 Layoffs from January to July 2025, Spurs US Data Center Boom Amid Power, Talent, and Regulatory Challenges

1 year ago

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171115316

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

1681

1326

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

60.73%chance

224414

OptionVotes

YES

1038

963

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.9%chance

53048

OptionVotes

YES

1064

940

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

90.14%chance

52609

OptionVotes

YES

3024

331

When will the Jacobian challenge be solved in Lean?

May 29, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:27 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Sep 2026

After July 2027

Before July 2026

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

YES

1536

912

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

YES

1327

804

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

YES

1002

997

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.28%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1014

916

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

1013

998

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Aug 17, 2025
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AI Causes 10,000 Layoffs from January to July 2025, Spurs US Data Center Boom Amid Power, Talent, and Regulatory Challenges
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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

When will the Jacobian challenge be solved in Lean?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram