Challenger News

AI Causes 10,000 Layoffs from January to July 2025, Spurs US Data Center Boom Amid Power, Talent, and Regulatory Challenges

10 months ago

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171114660

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

1681

1326

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

YES

2633

503

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

YES

1536

912

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

YES

1327

804

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Nov 14, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.82%chance

3423

OptionVotes

YES

1399

715

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

Nov 14, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:22 PM

37.48%chance

3327

OptionVotes

YES

1292

774

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

YES

1002

997

If Manifold's right to use code submitted to their Github is challenged in court, will they win?

Nov 22, 7:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.99%chance

798

OptionVotes

YES

188

102

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Apr 5, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.28%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1014

916

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

1013

998

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AI Causes 10,000 Layoffs from January to July 2025, Spurs US Data Center Boom Amid Power, Talent, and Regulatory Challenges
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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

DARPA Lift challenge participants achieve over 4X lift ratio?

Will the DARPA Lift challenge have qualifying participants with a lift ratio of over 2X?

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

If Manifold's right to use code submitted to their Github is challenged in court, will they win?

Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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