Apollo Global Management's chief economist, Torsten Sløk, has warned that the current artificial intelligence (AI) bubble surpasses the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s in terms of overvaluation. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are trading at approximately 28 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, higher than the 25 times P/E peak observed during the 2000 tech bubble. This concentration has made the S&P 500 dangerously top-heavy, with the 10 largest companies now accounting for 39% of the index, an all-time high. Additionally, the market value ratio of the top 5 stocks relative to all small-cap stocks has reached a record 4.9 times, three times larger than at the dot-com peak and five times greater than before the 2008 financial crisis. Semiconductor stocks have also hit a record, comprising about 11% of the S&P 500. Notably, within the Nasdaq 100, the top 5 stocks represent 52% of the index's market capitalization, with Nvidia and Microsoft alone accounting for 27% and exhibiting a 95% directional price correlation since April lows. While Sløk acknowledges AI's potential benefits, he questions whether the current valuations justify the premium paid for innovation that may eventually become commoditized. Analysts have expressed concerns that this AI-driven market bubble could lead to a larger crash than the dot-com era.
U.S. Semiconductor Stocks now account for roughly 11% of the S&P 500, an all-time high 🚨🚨🚨 https://t.co/065fHHuPtT
⚠️The AI BUBBLE is now larger than the Dot-Com Bubble in the 1990s: The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are now trading at ~28x forward P/E. By comparison, the top 10 P/E was ~25x in 2000.👇 https://t.co/VfT84Yr8v0
🚨 $SPX: The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 now account for 39% of the index, a new all-time high. Is this a Buy or Sell signal? https://t.co/NafYAGnJA6