The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has steadily adjusted its estimate for U.S. real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025. Initially, the forecast was 3.4% in mid-June but was lowered to 2.9% by June 27 following recent Census data. Subsequent updates saw the estimate decline further to 2.5% by July 1, then slightly rise to 2.6% on July 3. The model remained stable around 2.6% through early July before dropping to 2.4% by mid-July, where it held steady through July 18 and 25. Factors influencing the downward revisions include negative contributions from inventories and residential investment, while consumption and net exports provided positive support. Other forecasts include Goldman Sachs lowering its Q2 GDP tracking to 2.9%, Bank of America projecting a 2.3% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth with weak final demand but solid headline figures, and Kalshi estimating 2.5% growth. The Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow nowcast as of July 25 stands at approximately 2.4%, reflecting a moderate growth outlook for the U.S. economy in Q2 2025.