The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model lifted its estimate for U.S. real gross domestic product growth in the second quarter of 2025 to an annualized 2.9% as of 29 July, up from 2.4% four days earlier. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected incoming data ahead of the Commerce Department’s first official reading, due later this month. For the third quarter, the Atlanta Fed issued an initial GDPNow projection of 2.3% on 31 July but pared the figure to 2.1% on 1 August after incorporating the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics releases. The downward adjustment suggests the economy could lose some momentum entering the second half of the year, although the model’s track record shows forecasts can shift markedly as new information arrives. A separate model run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York echoed the softer trend. Its staff nowcast put third-quarter growth at 2.12% on 1 August, down from 2.37% a week earlier. While neither estimate constitutes an official Federal Reserve forecast, the gauges are closely watched on Wall Street because they update more frequently than private surveys.