Bitcoin Surges Above $117,000 as Four-Year Cycle Debate Intensifies with Dalio Dollar Warning and ETF Inflows

Bitcoin has recently surged past the $117,000 mark, driven by a combination of factors including expectations of lower interest rates, continued inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and unconventional strategies by the U.S. Treasury and balance sheets. Prominent investors and financial figures such as Paul Atkins, Scott Bessent, Bo Hines, Larry Fink, and Ray Dalio have contributed to the bullish sentiment, with Dalio warning about dollar devaluation. Additionally, Bitcoin's inclusion in 401(k) retirement plans and purchases by state treasuries are supporting demand. Market analysts are debating whether Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, which historically leads to a parabolic price increase, will hold or break this time. Some seasoned professionals argue that the cycle may extend until the second quarter of 2026, considering factors like M2 money supply, rate cycles, ETF flows, sentiment, and artificial intelligence capital expenditures. Discussions also highlight retail investor psychology's role in market tops and the evolving impact of stablecoins on global banking. The Bitcoin volatility index (VIX) is at a 10-year low, and industry developments include new strategies from Michael Saylor, the launch of Jack Dorsey's Bitcoin chip, miner-related tariffs, and competition between Binance and Ethereum. These dynamics come as the cryptocurrency community marks 15 years since Bitcoin's creation by Satoshi Nakamoto, with about 40 days remaining in a critical period for Bitcoin's price cycle.