
Credit markets are experiencing heightened volatility as benchmark yields rise significantly amid a risk-unwind phase, with credit spreads widening by 170 basis points. Concerns are growing over the movement in swap spreads, which have reached alarming levels, prompting speculation that traders may be selling U.S. Treasuries (USTs) to meet margin calls rather than reducing exposure to risk assets. Additionally, there are indications that banks may be hesitant to warehouse USTs, contributing to a decline in Treasury prices. The front-end of the Treasury curve has surged, with the 2s-10s curve steepening the most since the March 2023 banking crisis. The 30-year SOFR swap spreads are nearing negative 100 basis points, signaling liquidity concerns in the Treasury market and potential hoarding by banks. This situation is raising alarms for borrowers, as swap spreads reflect a complete meltdown, with some analysts suggesting panic hedging by pension funds may be at play.
Complete meltdown in swap spreads today😵 The horse has bolted on the populated de-regulation widener trades👇 https://t.co/MkBvGvvvr0
Long end Swap Spreads ALM managers who have continued to believe spreads can’t remain this negative have been big users of futures and short dated Treasury forwards (3 month to 1 year forward agreement to,buy UST). All the while, their liabilities are marked to swaps 1/2
30Y swap spreads nearing negative 100bps. During the LIBOR era don't think they ever got lower than -70 bps or so. Panic hedging by pensions or some sort of massive basis trade run amok?