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Top stories

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Authors

20

8 months ago

Kenya Treasury Defies Parliament, Insists on E-Procurement as Sh250bn Projects Stall

Kenya Treasury Defies Parliament, Insists on E-Procurement as Sh250bn Projects Stall

Authors

3

8 months ago

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Authors

6

8 months ago

Economists Warn Reeves’ UK Debt Path Risks 1976-Style IMF Bailout

Authors

15

8 months ago

US Gov Appointments

Senate Republicans Fast-Track Miran for Fed Board Before September Meeting

Authors

6

8 months ago

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Authors

7

8 months ago

US Foreign Policy

U.S. Treasury Blacklists North Korean IT Worker Network and Chinese Front Firm

Authors

31

8 months ago

Treasury's Bessent Targets Early-October Call on Fannie-Freddie IPO, Plans Late-Fall China Talks

Authors

13

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Treasury

Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?

Jul 22, 10:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.35%chance

3110561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

1984

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1949

513

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

11.61%chance

152497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2759

362

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Jan 16, 9:02 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

25.23%chance

61178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

Will the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?

Feb 3, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.85%chance

151093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

23

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Jun 29, 7:58 PMJul 1, 7:56 PM

91023

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

90

8

1

1

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.55%chance

7563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.38%chance

4408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Lowest 30 year treasury yield during 2023-2049?

Sep 3, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6237

OptionProbability

2.5-3%

Over 3.5%

3-3.5%

2-2.5%

1.5-2%

under 1.5%

30

21

20

14

10

6

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

Jan 3, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.16%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

958

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

38%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

528

478

Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?

Jan 3, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.87%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

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