
Economists and market analysts are closely watching the upcoming release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for Thursday at 8:30 AM ET. The median forecast for headline CPI inflation is 3.1% year-over-year, down from 3.3% in May. On a monthly basis, June inflation is expected to rise 0.1%. Major financial institutions such as JPMorgan, Citi, BMO, and Barclays have also forecasted a 3.1% increase. FactSet economists anticipate a similar rise. Options markets are pricing in a 0.6% move for the CPI print, with implied volatility around 14%. The VIX has seen an uptick, indicating increased demand for upside calls. Polymarket traders are predicting just a 46% chance of the CPI meeting expectations, with a 19% chance of it exceeding 3.1%. The market's reaction to the CPI data will be critical, as it could influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions. Additionally, the June Producer Price Index (PPI) report will follow on Friday, providing further insights into inflation trends.

The US CPI data is scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 AM New York time. Here is a comparison of the CPI and the PCE Price Index ahead of the release from ECAN<GO>: The current Bloomberg consensus forecast is +3.1% YoY, down from +3.3% a month prior. https://t.co/fg0JqtHW2L
$VIX +2.7% today alongside a 1% rally in $SPY $SPX $QQQ It's up 4.3% in the last two days despite green days in the indices. Admittedly, it's coming off the low end of its range & could be some protection into the second half of July. But could be a sign of short-term caution
Tomorrow’s CPI https://t.co/DA8XT6NVj2 https://t.co/UV8MfXnaP2