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Top stories

Trump Unveils 50% Copper Tariff, Lifts Canada Duty to 35% in Global Shake-Up

Executive Orders

Trump Unveils 50% Copper Tariff, Lifts Canada Duty to 35% in Global Shake-Up

Authors

80

19 hours ago

Trump Urges Fed Board to Seize Control if Powell Won’t Cut Rates

US Domestic Policy

Trump Urges Fed Board to Seize Control if Powell Won’t Cut Rates

Authors

57

22 hours ago

Trump Orders Firing of Labor Statistics Chief After Weak Jobs Report

Executive Orders

US Gov Appointments

Trump Orders Firing of Labor Statistics Chief After Weak Jobs Report

Authors

92

14 hours ago

US Gov Appointments

Trump Signals Powell Likely to Remain Fed Chair

Authors

4

8 hours ago

Stocks Slide as Trump Tariffs and Weak Jobs Data Jolt Wall Street

Authors

19

12 hours ago

Trump Claims US Jobs Report Was Rigged to Undermine Him

Authors

12

13 hours ago

US Payrolls Rise 73,000 as BLS Wipes 258,000 Jobs From Spring

Authors

44

20 hours ago

Fed Dissenters Waller and Bowman Urge Early Rate Cut to Shield Jobs

Authors

17

20 hours ago

Prediction markets for Federal Reserve

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.86%chance

265496716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20131

6741

Will Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell still be the Fed Chair on August 16, 2025?

Jul 19, 3:22 AMAug 16, 12:00 AM

99%chance

157023

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025?

Jul 15, 7:53 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

65%chance

274117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

734

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

93738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4349

230

Will the US Federal Reserve issue any rate cuts from May 2025 to end of 2025?

Apr 27, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.42%chance

211158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

36

Federal Reserve announces interest rate change on August 30, 2025

Jul 30, 11:53 AMAug 29, 11:52 AM

1%chance

101109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Aug 19, 10:00 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

2.15%chance

18914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

15

Which of these titles will Ron Paul become “_____ of”, w/r/t the Federal Reserve?

Feb 11, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3750

OptionProbability

(Catch-all for “special appointments” etc.)

Auditor General

Nominee for Chairman

Chairman

Ender

50

37

22

18

18

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

Nov 11, 3:49 PMFeb 19, 6:59 AM

47.28%chance

18728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will Jay Powell still be chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20th, 2026?

Apr 23, 5:49 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

84.07%chance

12561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

44

Will the Federal Reserve end quantitative tightening in 2025?

May 22, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.61%chance

5415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

727

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

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21 days ago
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