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Top stories

Fed’s Waller Backs September 25-Point Cut, Signals More Easing Ahead

Fed’s Waller Backs September 25-Point Cut, Signals More Easing Ahead

Authors

36

3 months ago

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Authors

6

3 months ago

Fed’s Lisa Cook Sues Trump, Challenging Attempted Firing and Fed Independence

US Gov Appointments

Fed’s Lisa Cook Sues Trump, Challenging Attempted Firing and Fed Independence

Authors

115

3 months ago

FHFA’s Pulte Files Second Criminal Referral Alleging Mortgage Fraud by Fed’s Lisa Cook

Authors

15

3 months ago

Japan MOF Reports Zero Yen Intervention Despite Post-Fed Firing Volatility

Authors

10

3 months ago

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

Authors

30

3 months ago

Company Earnings

S&P 500 Tops 6,500 for First Time on Nvidia-Driven Tech Rally

Authors

34

3 months ago

Gold Nears Record Above $3,500 as Rate-Cut Bets Intensify

Authors

12

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Federal Reserve

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119785

2471

Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision in December

Sep 3, 9:51 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

158103178

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

Increase

50+ bps decrease

93

6

0

0

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Feb 2, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

216831

OptionProbability

Kevin Hassett

Chris Waller

Kevin Warsh

Other

Scott Bessent

Stephen Miran

Larry Kudlow

Judy Shelton

Jim Cramer

Janet Yellen

Mary Daly

Austan Goolsbee

Susan Collins

Lisa Cook

Arthur Laffer

Andrew Hussie

76

6

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.39%chance

104728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5339

187

Will Trump be able to force Jerome Powell to leave or resign from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 17, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

1.78%chance

322312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

743

13

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

Nov 11, 3:49 PMFeb 19, 6:59 AM

31.85%chance

211041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Aug 19, 10:00 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

4.02%chance

20974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

20

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

4.52%chance

19954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

618

35

Which of these titles will Ron Paul become “_____ of”, w/r/t the Federal Reserve?

Feb 11, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4780

OptionProbability

(Catch-all for “special appointments” etc.)

Auditor General

Nominee for Chairman

Chairman

Ender

50

37

21

17

17

Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jun 29, 1:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.89%chance

9292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

126

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
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Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut
Authors
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3 months ago
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3 months ago
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4 months ago
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4 months ago
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4 months ago
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4 months ago
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19
4 months ago
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10
4 months ago
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4 months ago
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58
4 months ago
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17
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4 months ago
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22
4 months ago
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4 months ago
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11
4 months ago
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4 months ago
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4 months ago
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4 months ago

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