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Goldman Sachs forecasts the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May to increase by 0.11% month-over-month (m/m) and 3.4% year-over-year (y/y). The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.25% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Bank of America (BofA) projects a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and a 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI, keeping the y/y rate unchanged at 3.6%. The consensus among major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley, is for a 3.4% y/y increase in CPI. Goldman Sachs' Core CPI forecast is consistent with a 0.19% increase in Core PCE. The Fed's CPI Nowcast projects a 0.08% m/m increase in headline CPI for May.
���️ WHAT'S YOUR PREDICTION FOR WEDNESDAY’S US CPI INFLATION REPORT? *PREVIOUS: 3.4% Y/Y *ESTIMATE: 3.4% Y/Y 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/OHOPCU49yn
Tomorrow's CPI inflation data is HUGE: Just about every large bank is expecting CPI inflation to come in at 3.4%, but the markets tell us a more nuanced story. Prediction markets currently show that there is a 17% chance of inflation ABOVE 3.4%, according to @Kalshi. CPI… https://t.co/HWOz43doJW
May YoY CPI Estimates by Firm $SPY TD Securities: 3.3% JP Morgan: 3.4% Bank of America: 3.4% Morgan Stanley: 3.4% UBS: 3.4% Barclays 3.4% Citigroup: 3.4% Goldman Sachs 3.4% Citadel: 3.4% HSBC: 3.4% Wells Fargo: 3.4% Scotiabank: 3.5% Consensus: 3.4%