Goldman Sachs has provided an analysis of the revisions in the July 2025 US employment report, indicating that most of the downward adjustments reflect lower estimates of underlying employment rather than changes in seasonal factors. The revisions were roughly evenly split between the public and private sectors. According to Goldman Sachs, employment growth in the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) has significantly underperformed compared to nonfarm payrolls over the past year, suggesting a potential downward revision to nonfarm payrolls ranging from 550,000 to 950,000 in the upcoming annual benchmarking. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to publish a preliminary estimate of this benchmark revision for March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9. This revision could translate to a monthly payroll growth downward adjustment of 45,000 to 80,000 over the period from April 2024 to March 2025. The July employment report also included a downward revision of 253,000 jobs over the previous two months, marking the largest such revision since at least 1979, excluding the April 2020 data affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The scale of these revisions has drawn attention to the challenges and unpredictability in economic data reporting, with significant implications for financial markets, including shifts toward fixed income assets. The revisions are the largest downward adjustments in nonfarm payrolls in recent years, comparable to the 818,000-job downward revision made in August 2024, which was the largest in 15 years.