Apr 20, 11:28 AM

Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 Gains Over 20% After Policy Uncertainty Spike Above 300 Amid Rising Cash, Bearish Sentiment, and Elevated Volatility

Recent analysis by Goldman Sachs indicates that spikes in the Economic Policy Uncertainty index above 300 have historically preceded strong gains in the S&P 500 over the following 12 months, with average returns exceeding 20%, which is double the long-term average. This pattern has been observed in eight out of ten past episodes, suggesting that periods of high uncertainty tend to be followed by substantial market recoveries. Despite this, current market sentiment remains bearish but has not yet reached the lows seen in 2022. The yield curve is steepening, contributing to increased rate volatility, which may drive a secular rise in equity volatility lasting one to two years. Historical data on U.S. bear markets since the 1800s show average declines of 36% over 25 months, with real recoveries taking approximately 80 months. Some analysts caution that if the current downturn is a structural bear market, stocks could fall more than 50% from peak to trough and require an extended recovery period. Investor behavior reflects heightened caution, with cash allocations among 164 investors managing $386 billion rising to 4.8%, the highest level in two years, marking the largest two-month increase since 2020. Sentiment among these investors has shifted dramatically, with 49% now anticipating a hard landing for the global economy, a significant change from 83% who expected no recession just a month prior. Overall global investor sentiment has dropped to 1.8 points in April, the lowest since October 2023 and among the lowest readings on record. Additionally, a record 50% of these investors plan to reduce exposure to U.S. equities, resulting in a net 36% underweight position, the largest two-month decline ever recorded. Volatility measures such as the VIX may be entering a secular uptrend, potentially sustaining elevated volatility through 2026.

#Goldman Sachs #Economic Policy

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