Despite a downturn in US stock markets in April, individual investors continued to buy aggressively, a strategy that has proven beneficial. Over the past 15 years, the US experienced a period of market outperformance driven by price-to-earnings (P/E) rerating, but recent trends suggest this exceptionalism may be waning, potentially leading to a reduction in the US's relative market weight. Foreign investors have maintained interest in US Treasury securities, with net inflows reaching $1.2 billion over the past four weeks—the highest in six months—even amid a 50 basis point spike in the 10-year Treasury yield in April. These inflows are largely attributed to foreign central banks restocking after COVID-related selling, while foreign investment in US stocks remains relatively small and recent. Analysts characterize the current market dynamics as a structural shift, with capital reallocating away from the US toward undervalued or emerging markets elsewhere, signaling an end to the era of US market exceptionalism. However, the overhang of foreign investment outflows appears limited and may have already been fully absorbed.
Foreign Investors Loaded Up on Treasury Securities in March Despite all the Turmoil in the Media. And in April, their purchases of long-term securities at Treasury auctions increased https://t.co/tXX39y8qLT https://t.co/SCdWc0Cozy
The US was everyone's favorite investment for a while. As the "exceptionalism" bubble bursts, there's now a positioning overhang and associated outflows (and $ weakness). Today's substack finds that this overhang was small & has likely been fully run down. https://t.co/gX13MixxP3 https://t.co/8Xs44YSaQW
Don’t let the rebound fool you: this is a rotation, not a blip. US exceptionalism is over. This is a structural change with investors reallocating capital away from the U.S. toward undervalued or rising markets elsewhere, writes @John_Stepek https://t.co/X0PXbjOxU3 #economy https://t.co/uaNIuEBN6a