
Recent market sentiment, influenced by robust U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from policymakers including Jerome Powell, indicates a shift in expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Initially, markets anticipated multiple rate cuts throughout the year; however, current analyses and options market data suggest a growing likelihood of rate hikes instead. Analysts from Piper Sandler and PGIM highlight these factors as key drivers of this change. The options market now reflects a 20% chance of a rate increase within the next 12 months, a significant adjustment from earlier predictions, with traders increasingly betting on rate hikes.





Options market now implying a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates within the next 12 months. We've gone from 6 cuts to 4 cuts to 3 cuts to 2 cuts to 0 cuts to a rate hike in half a year 😂 https://t.co/YWbsMAsXsb
Indian rates traders have pushed back expectations for an interest-rate cut way too far and that creates an opportunity in the swaps market, according to Bank of America https://t.co/4ecCeKAXfw
Traders in the US interest rates market have started to put on wagers that the Fed will refrain from cutting borrowing costs this year. https://t.co/wD1n4Qz4MC