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Got an almost negative job print, so the 10-year spikes from 4.22 up to 4.38 on the day? Thoughts?
Something is not quite right. A weak jobs number and higher expectations of rate cuts but the 10 yr yield continues to rise, now at 4.34%. The Treasury volatility index, MOVE, has had a spectacular run, closing yesterday at 135, the highest level in more than a year. Are…
Screaming Bloomberg headline implies a market signal. *TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.06% Remember, the MOVE is at a 1-year high (below). We want to think ten bps is significant. Maybe it is just normal noise in this high-volatility environment. https://t.co/gBMYKOCM7c https://t.co/u2f7Ime1cn
The MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, closed at 135, marking its highest level in over a year and the second-highest in 17 months. This surge indicates that the bond market is anticipating significant volatility in the near future. In conjunction with this, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.06%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.34%, up from 4.22%. Analysts are questioning the implications of a potentially negative jobs report, as expectations for interest rate cuts rise amidst these conflicting signals in the Treasury market.
