In 2025, major U.S. technology stocks have shown mixed performance, with Nvidia and Meta leading gains at over 34%, while Apple and Tesla have declined by 7.5% and 18.2% respectively. The hyperscale tech giants Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta have collectively spent $120 billion on depreciation and amortization over the past year, with Amazon accounting for $58 billion. These four companies are projected to generate approximately $600 billion in capital expenditures by 2030, reinforcing their positions as some of the largest and most resilient firms globally, driven largely by sustained investments in artificial intelligence. Morgan Stanley estimates that these companies represent 77% of its capital expenditure forecast, with global cloud capital expenditure expected to rise 31% year-over-year to $582 billion in 2026, reaching an all-time high capex-to-revenue ratio of 21.6%. Meanwhile, the broader U.S. stock market is exhibiting unprecedented valuation levels. The Nasdaq market capitalization relative to U.S. GDP has reached a record 105%, nearly doubling since the 2022 bear market and surpassing the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by about 40 percentage points. The S&P 500's price-to-book value ratio hit a record 5.3 times, exceeding the 2000 bubble peak and far above the long-term average of 2.0. The S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio also set a record at 3.4 times, surpassing pre-2022 bear market levels and the Dot-Com Bubble peak. Additionally, the S&P 100 has 27% of its stocks trading with price-to-earnings ratios above 50 times, and 66 stocks with P/E ratios over 30 times, while only one stock trades below a 10 times P/E ratio. The U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio reached 211%, more than double the size of the U.S. economy and well above the 144% peak during the 2000 bubble. The Nasdaq market cap relative to the U.S. M2 money supply hit 145%, exceeding the Dot-Com Bubble peak. Valuation metrics such as P/E, forward P/E, CAPE, P/B, EV/EBITDA, Q ratio, and market cap-to-GDP have surpassed levels seen in 1929 before the Great Depression. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio stands at 22.5 times, the second highest since 2000, with the 30-year average at 15.5 times. The top 10 stocks now constitute a record 40% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, compared to 27% during the 2000 bubble, though these companies generate only 30% of the index's earnings. The five largest U.S. stocks are now 4.9 times larger than all small-cap stocks combined, a ratio that has tripled since 2019, driven by tech stock growth. This concentration and elevated valuation raise concerns about market sustainability amid ongoing heavy investment in AI and cloud infrastructure by leading tech firms.
Shocking stat of the day: The 5 largest stocks in the US are now 4.9x larger than all small-cap stocks COMBINED, a new all-time high. Since 2019, this ratio has TRIPLED, driven by an unprecedented surge in tech stocks. During this time, Nvidia, $NVDA, Microsoft, $MSFT, Apple, https://t.co/1MZnXH1GTT
⚠️UNPRECEDENTED US stock market concentration BUBBLE: The top 10 stocks now make up a RECORD 40% of the S&P 500, By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, the weight was 27%. Yet those companies only generate 30% of total index earnings. Will the gap close soon? https://t.co/XIrCBgtghH
“During the tech bubble, the concentration of the top 10 largest stocks at 27% was nearly 2x above its earnings contribution….Today, the weight of the top 10 stocks relative to their earnings contribution is much more aligned at 35% and 32%….” https://t.co/St7l03GKQu