The US stock market is currently exhibiting valuation levels that surpass those seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and approach historic highs not witnessed since 1929. The NASDAQ market capitalization relative to US GDP has reached a record 105%, nearly doubling since the 2022 bear market and exceeding the Dot-Com peak by approximately 40 percentage points. The overall US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio hit an unprecedented 211%, rising 45 percentage points in the last three months, well above the Dot-Com peak of around 144%. Valuation metrics for the S&P 500 and its components have also reached all-time highs. The S&P 500 Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is at 5.3x, surpassing the 2000 bubble peak and far above the long-term average of 2.0x. The S&P 500 Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio reached 3.4x, exceeding the Dot-Com peak by one point, while the technology sector’s Price-to-Sales ratio hit 10x, the highest ever recorded, surpassing the 7.8x peak in 2000. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios are elevated, with 27% of S&P 100 stocks trading above 50x P/E and 66 stocks above 30x P/E; only one stock has a P/E below 10x. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio stands near 22x to 27.3x, close to Dot-Com and post-COVID highs, and the forward 12-month earnings per share (EPS) has reached a record $290. The concentration of the market is also notable, with the top 10 stocks comprising a record 40% of the S&P 500’s total value, compared to 27% during the 2000 bubble, despite generating only 30% of the index’s earnings. The NASDAQ market cap relative to the US M2 money supply hit 145%, exceeding the Dot-Com peak. Collectively, these valuation metrics—P/E, forward P/E, CAPE, P/B, EV/EBITDA, Q Ratio, and market cap-to-GDP—have surpassed previous highs, indicating an unprecedented level of market overvaluation.
The S&P 500's P/E ratio is at 27.3x https://t.co/XPzMjzACVg
The Tech sector's price/sales ratio is essentially right back to its cycle and all-time high https://t.co/LvOvoBG4sT
S&P 500 forward P/E heat map. $LLY actually had a sub-market multiple earlier this month. $NVDA $MSFT $AAPL $AMZN clinging to 30x https://t.co/7RY5WceMtb