A key stock-market indicator tracking the S&P 500 Index has entered a phase historically linked to the worst return prospects, amid growing trade concerns that have dampened Corporate America's profit growth outlook. Despite recent gains, including a 14% rise in the S&P 500 total return over the past 21 days, the index has underperformed relative to global risk sentiment signals. Over the last 20 days, the S&P 500 has lagged behind a cross-asset model by approximately 5.2%, reflecting weaker performance compared to correlated global assets. The model's signals vary across asset classes, with commodities showing the most bullish outlook and interest rates the least. Notably, this marks the first bearish turn in a key S&P 500 model in two years, underscoring heightened market caution ahead of the New York market open.