US stocks have experienced a sharp rebound from recent lows, but market analysts warn that volatility is likely to persist. Historical data since World War II indicates that bear markets accompanied by recessions typically see an average S&P 500 decline of 35%, compared to 28% in bear markets without recessions. There have been only five bear markets without recessions since 1948. Over the past 45 years, the average intra-year decline in the S&P 500 has been 14.1%, with one-third of those years seeing drops of 17% or more, underscoring that such declines are a normal part of market behavior. Peak-to-trough drawdowns of more than 15% in the S&P 500 have been frequent since 1950. Recent market movements following GDP data have been described as volatile, reinforcing the expectation that fluctuations will continue. Despite a recent relief rally, fundamental market conditions remain unchanged, suggesting the possibility of further declines in the S&P 500 consistent with typical bear market patterns.
🚨Is the S&P 500 heading for another leg down? The market has seen some relief, but fundamentally, nothing has changed. Overlaying different market periods is often unreliable, but this chart perfectly shows how an average bear market works. Read more👇 https://t.co/rdMVNKv3y2
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns of more than 15% since 1950 https://t.co/kmqp8HfvWr
Stocks' post-GDP whiplash shows it’s ‘foolish’ to expect anything but volatility https://t.co/h3sLDPJBEB