Historical data on U.S. bear markets and recessions indicate that stock market declines and recoveries vary significantly over time. According to Goldman Sachs, the average bear market decline is approximately 36%, lasting about 25 months, with a real recovery period averaging 80 months. In recessions, the S&P 500 typically experiences further declines, with average drawdowns around 30% since 1970 and severe cases reaching 50%. Earnings and economic output also contract during recessions. Data from Apollo Global and others show that since World War II, GDP has declined on average by 2.3% during recessions, while S&P 500 nominal earnings drop about 11%. Bank of America notes that earnings hits during recessions average around 20%, but have ranged from as low as 5% in 1980 to as high as 45% during the Global Financial Crisis. Valuation metrics suggest that despite recent market corrections, U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500, remain overvalued. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 19.0, below the five-year average of 19.9 but above the ten-year average of 18.3. Other measures, such as the Shiller CAPE ratio, have remained above 30 for an extended period, indicating potential bubble territory. The S&P 500 is trading at a P/E ratio near 25, well above its 40-year average of about 19. Analysts suggest that if valuations revert to the mean, the index level would be significantly lower than current levels. Earnings estimates for 2025 project S&P 500 earnings per share around $261.39 with 10% growth, but stocks are still considered expensive relative to these earnings. Market history and expert analysis caution that if a recession occurs, stocks may have further to fall, with the possibility of a structural bear market involving declines exceeding 50% and prolonged recovery periods.