Money-market pricing shifted sharply in Friday trading, with futures now assigning a 90% probability that the European Central Bank will lower its deposit rate by 25 basis points at its March 2026 meeting. The probability had been around 65% before the latest U.S. economic data were released. Investors also pulled forward expectations for the first move. Contracts now show a 60% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction by December 2025, compared with 50% before the data. Odds that the ECB will deliver a cumulative 50 basis points of easing by its October 2025 meeting have risen to above 50%, from just 13% the previous day. Further out, futures imply a 43.9% probability that the central bank will cut rates three times by December 2025, eclipsing all other scenarios and contrasting with yesterday’s 17% chance that policy would remain unchanged through year-end. The repricing underscores traders’ conviction that slowing growth and cooling inflation will prompt the ECB to begin loosening policy sooner than previously expected.