Treasury’s Bessent Sees AI Boosting US Productivity by Early 2026

US Treasury Secretary Jocelyn Bessent said the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence could begin to register in official US productivity statistics as early as the first quarter of 2026. Speaking on 27 August, Bessent argued that investment in AI-enabled tools and systems is reaching a scale that should soon translate into measurable efficiency gains across the economy. Private-sector analysts offered a more measured outlook. A same-day research note from Morgan Stanley projected that AI adoption is likely to outpace previous technology cycles but that its impact on macroeconomic data may not become evident until the latter half of the decade. The bank nonetheless estimated the longer-term uplift to S&P 500 market value at as much as $16 trillion, with beneficiaries extending beyond the technology sector to industries such as transportation, real estate and healthcare. Market projections for AI-related capital expenditures have climbed in recent months, with some estimates approaching $400 billion. While the timing of broad economic benefits remains debated, both policymakers and investors appear to be positioning for a significant AI-driven expansion.