The so-called 'Trump trades,' which previously anticipated a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, are faltering in 2025. The U.S. dollar has weakened by 0.4% since the start of the year, contrary to expectations of continued gains fueled by tariffs and tax cuts. Treasury yields have also declined, with the 10-year yield dropping from 4.57% to 4.42%. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the economic impact of President Donald Trump's policies, including trade tariffs and tax reforms. Market uncertainty, driven by fluctuating trade policy announcements, has led to a reassessment of earlier optimistic forecasts. Inflation expectations have eased, and analysts are focusing on potential economic blows. Bets against the renminbi have also soured. Emerging markets have shown resilience, with currencies like the Chilean peso and Brazilian real gaining against the dollar. Analysts suggest that the stop-start nature of tariff policies and concerns over potential economic slowdown have undermined confidence in the 'Trump trade' strategies.
Many people whine about imminent $USD dollar weakness, but all we've seen is the dollar get stronger in the QE/post-GFC era. A strong dollar make MAGA policies harder because it favors imports. A goal of Trump's admin is to weaken the dollar. Now, let's think of this… https://t.co/7ZpOT7LmNJ
Tariffs could hurt the dollar long-term - BofA https://t.co/5knbYsMvMU https://t.co/W5X3cBvNrm
Tarifas de Trump podem prejudicar o dólar no longo prazo, afirma BofA https://t.co/yPSxk4ySgb