Recent observations indicate a breakdown in the traditional correlation between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields. Analysts noted that the strength of the dollar, which has historically been influenced by higher bond yields compared to other global currencies, is no longer following this pattern. This shift has been particularly evident in the relationship between the dollar and the Japanese yen, as well as with bond yields from Germany and Switzerland. The correlation has weakened significantly over the past month, diverging from typical trends observed at quarter-end. Experts suggest that the unwind of the yen Carry Trade has contributed to this temporary disconnection, marking an unusual development in financial markets.
When the yen Carry Trade was stable, the dollar’s value correlated with UST yields (see graph below). The unwind of the Carry Trade has broken that correlation, atleast temporarily. via @JustinWolfers https://t.co/rVhQWhvabt
Wow. The usual strong correlation between the US dollar and the 10-year yield totally broke this week. And we all know why. https://t.co/v1tMOdYLtl
The relationship between the dollar and Treasury yields isn't quite an iron law in finance, but it is a very close link which has become completely severed (liberated, if you will) in the past week and a half. I've never seen anything like it. Great chart from the FT here. https://t.co/1scOWP4yQy