Recent data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) indicates that U.S. non-farm payroll figures for the nine-month period ending December 2024 are likely to be revised downward by nearly 800,000 jobs, averaging an overstatement of approximately 88,888 jobs per month. In 2025, job numbers have already been revised down by 461,000, with every month showing a downward adjustment, following a 625,000 downward revision in 2024. These extensive revisions are unusual and have historically been associated with recessionary periods. Specifically, May and June 2025 saw downward revisions of 125,000 and 133,000 jobs respectively, marking the second-largest downward revisions in over 45 years. The U.S. services employment sector is contracting, with the ISM Services PMI Employment index falling to 46.4 points, one of its lowest readings since the 2020 crisis, and employment contracting in four of the last five months. Job cut announcements have reached 806,383 year-to-date, the second-highest total since the financial crisis, with July alone recording 62,075 layoffs, nearly triple the average from 2021 to 2024. Additionally, private sector hiring rates have fallen to 3.6% in June 2025, levels comparable to the 2020 crisis and below those seen during the 2001 recession. Private sector job openings dropped by 325,000 in June to the second-lowest level since September 2024, with openings relative to total jobs falling to 4.6%, below pre-pandemic levels. Market reactions to these revisions have been muted, possibly due to the unprecedented scale of the adjustments, which represent a four standard deviation shock. Analysts note that the delays in employer reporting post-COVID have contributed to the volatility and magnitude of these revisions.