The US labor market is showing multiple indicators consistent with recession-level weakness in mid-2025. Year-to-date, there have been 806,383 job cut announcements, marking the second-highest total since the 2008 financial crisis. In July alone, job cuts reached 62,075, nearly triple the average monthly cuts from 2021 to 2024. Private sector hiring has slowed significantly, with the hiring rate falling to 3.6% in June, one of the lowest since the 2020 economic crisis and below levels seen during the 2001 recession. Payroll growth is also subdued, with the three-month average change in payrolls dropping to just 35,000, the lowest outside of the 2020 lockdown period in 15 years. Private payroll growth is at its second-lowest level in five years. Additionally, private sector job openings declined by 325,000 in June to the second-lowest level since September 2024, with job openings as a percentage of total jobs falling to 4.6%, below pre-pandemic levels. The labor market challenges extend to high-income earners, where the probability of finding a new job within three months after job loss has dropped to the lowest point in 11 years, excluding 2020. Rising unemployment rates among young American men and Black Americans have been noted as concerning trends, though the underlying causes remain unclear. Some analysts suggest that women’s unemployment has not yet increased similarly because women are more likely to hold jobs less vulnerable to AI replacement.