The U.S. stock market has reached its highest valuation levels in history, surpassing the peaks of both the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and the 1929 pre-Great Depression era. The market capitalization to GDP ratio hit a record 211%, rising 45 percentage points in the last three months, compared to approximately 144% during the Dot-Com peak. The NASDAQ market cap relative to U.S. GDP reached an all-time high of 127%, nearly doubling since the 2022 bear market low and exceeding the Dot-Com Bubble level by about 50 percentage points. The S&P 500 Technology Sector's price-to-sales ratio climbed to 10x, surpassing the 7.8x peak in 2000, while the overall S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio hit a record 3.4x, exceeding previous highs. The S&P 500 price-to-book ratio also set a record at 5.3x, above the Dot-Com peak of 5.1x. The Shiller CAPE ratio on the S&P 500 reached 38.7x, the highest since the Dot-Com burst, with the forward P/E ratio at 22.5x, the second highest since 2000. Market concentration has intensified, with the top 10 stocks accounting for a record 40% of the S&P 500, although these companies generate only 30% of the index's earnings. Margin debt in the U.S. surged to $1.02 trillion, the highest ever, increasing by $14.6 billion in the last month and over $100 billion in two months. Fund manager sentiment reflects this overvaluation, with 91% believing U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest proportion recorded since 2001. These metrics collectively indicate a market environment priced for perfection with limited margin for error.
⚠️US Margin debt is SKYROCKETING: US margin debt jumped $14.6 billion last month to $1.02 TRILLION, the highest level EVER. Over the last 2 months, margin debt has SPIKED by more than $100BN. As a share of US GDP, it is only below the 2021 frenzy.👇 https://t.co/bpfwTj6WR4
"Back in 2021, the speculative stories I was hearing combined with the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of the S&P 500 suggested that something was amiss. Well, I’m getting deja vu." 🐻 - @dollarsanddata https://t.co/QhHzZ9jtcF
91% of Bank of America, $BAC, fund managers surveyed indicated that American stocks are overvalued, the highest ever proportion in data going back to 2001.