U.S. stocks have experienced their weakest start relative to global markets in 32 years, underperforming by approximately 15 percentage points year-to-date. The S&P 500 index has declined by 6.1%, while the MSCI World Ex-USA index has risen 8.8%. This marks one of the worst years in U.S. equity market history, with the U.S. market capitalization share dropping from a record 52% to 47% after 15 years of dominance. The decline reflects a loss of manufacturing leadership and a shift of capital flows towards European markets. Despite recent outperformance by non-U.S. stocks, over the past 15 years, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (ACWX) has lagged the S&P 500 significantly, with returns of 39% versus 368%, respectively. The average correlation between EAFE/EM markets and the S&P 500 remains high, reducing diversification benefits.
Non-US stocks have done well YTD (ACWX +9.0%, S&P -6.0%), but it's worth remembering that they've lagged badly over the last 15 years ( $ACWX +39%, S&P +368%). Diversification benefits don’t justify that drag, with average EAFE/EM correlations to the S&P 500 running 0.75 – 0.83.
U.S. stocks haven't underperformed foreign stocks this badly since 1993 https://t.co/scFIzTSK9J
🚨The US is losing its global market share: The US market cap share has declined from a record 52% to 47% after 15 years of dominance. The US has lost manufacturing leadership over the last decades; to reverse this, it would likely need to LOSE stock market supremacy Buckle up https://t.co/41sxgBb19i