Apr 17, 12:35 PM

US Investors Hit Record 8-Week Bearish Sentiment Amid $3.3B Retail Buys, $6.5B Foreign Outflows, Gold Tops Trades

US investors are exhibiting historically high levels of bearish sentiment amid growing economic concerns. According to a New York Fed survey, only 33.8% of consumers expect higher stock prices over the next 12 months, matching the lowest level recorded during the 2022 bear market. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey shows bearish sentiment exceeding 50% for eight consecutive weeks, a record duration unmatched in over three decades of data. Institutional investors are also turning cautious, with a Bank of America survey revealing that about 50% intend to reduce US equity exposure, resulting in a 13 percentage point decline in allocation to US stocks to a net 36% underweight. Retail investors, however, have been actively buying US equities, with $3.3 billion purchased in the first 4.5 hours of trading on a recent Wednesday, marking the third-largest amount ever. Meanwhile, foreign investors have withdrawn approximately $6.5 billion from US equity funds in the past week, the second-largest outflow on record. Small-cap stocks have been particularly hard hit, with US small-cap equity funds experiencing a record $58 billion in net outflows year-to-date, and the Russell 2000 index remaining 25% below its peak. Gold has emerged as the most crowded trade on Wall Street, with 49% of investors holding long positions, surpassing the so-called Magnificent 7 tech stocks, which account for 24%. This shift reflects heightened recession fears, with 42% of global investors managing $386 billion in assets expecting a global recession, the highest since June 2023, and 49% anticipating a hard landing for the world economy, a sharp reversal from March when 83% expected no recession. The S&P 500 is widely expected to face a prolonged decline over the next year, with 82% of investors forecasting a weaker global economy. Sentiment indicators such as Yale's "Buy the Dip" reading show divergence between individual and institutional investors, with individuals growing more bearish. This combination of factors underscores a cautious outlook for US and global markets in the near term.