
Long-term borrowing costs in the United States have surged to their highest levels since January 2022, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing towards 4.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points since the beginning of April. Factors contributing to this rise include foreign investors selling U.S. Treasuries, an unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds, and heightened risk aversion among asset managers. Despite the increase in yields, the U.S. dollar has weakened, declining nearly 5% over the same period. Analysts have noted a divergence between rising long-term rates and a falling Dollar Index, suggesting that a risk premium related to fiscal or policy uncertainty may be developing. The S&P 500 index has shown recovery, indicating a more optimistic growth outlook, even as the dollar's decline presents a puzzling scenario amidst rising yields. Experts continue to debate the underlying causes of these trends, with some attributing the yield increase to domestic fiscal challenges rather than foreign selling of Treasuries.
There's no foreign exodus from US Treasuries in high-frequency data. The blame for rising yields lies closer to home. We've run huge budget deficits for a very long time. Unexpected shocks - like COVID and now the trade war - will wake markets up and push interest rates higher... https://t.co/5D3CQ9LtBM
Torsten Sløk argues US long-term rates are moving higher due to a combination of foreigners selling Treasuries, an unwinding of the basis trade, and broader risk reduction among asset managers. https://t.co/N7Lz2My6p3 https://t.co/gljNWDSqUi
Rising 10-year yield (blue) is now less of a puzzle, because the S&P 500 (white) is recovering. Higher yields are just capturing more a more upbeat growth outlook, which is why S&P 500 is up. The fall in the Dollar - even as yields are rising - remains an unpleasant puzzle... https://t.co/gPd5I0Z9dZ







