
The US stock market has reached unprecedented levels, with its share of the global equity market hitting a record 56%, surpassing the peak seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Despite this growth, US earnings account for approximately 44%, indicating a disparity between market capitalization and earnings performance. A concerning trend has emerged, where the market capitalization share of the 493 smallest S&P 500 stocks has fallen to 67%, the lowest on record, while the largest seven stocks now account for 33% of the S&P 500 index. Furthermore, the top 10% of largest US stocks represent a record 75% of the stock market, exceeding the share observed prior to the Great Depression and surpassing the 73% seen at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. Analysts warn that excessive valuations and investor overcrowding in megacap tech stocks pose significant risks to the overall US stock market and economy, compounded by competition from VC-funded startups and innovations in open-source AI.
For the most part investors have become over reliant on U.S. equities and especially big tech. We think this trade is looking a little long in the tooth with record setting valuations no longer backstopped by fundamentals now facing some serious threats from within. We do worry…
"Excessive valuations and investor overcrowding in US megacap tech stocks in our view represent the biggest risk to the overall US stock market and economy today. Competition from US VC-funded startups, creative destruction from open-source AI innovation itself, and Chinese… https://t.co/OmpexLXevp
This has never happened before: The top 10% largest US stocks now reflect a record 75% of the US equity market. This percentage has surpassed the previous record set before the Great Depression in the 1930s. By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, this percentage was… https://t.co/N9sj83qIqi



