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Aug 18, 12:34 PM
US Stock Market Valuations Hit Record 5.3x Price-to-Book, 211% Market Cap to GDP Amid $16 Trillion AI Growth Forecast
Economics
Stocks
Business
AI

US Stock Market Valuations Hit Record 5.3x Price-to-Book, 211% Market Cap to GDP Amid $16 Trillion AI Growth Forecast

Authors
  • zerohedge
  • Anthony Pompliano 🌪
  • *Walter Bloomberg
16

The US stock market is currently exhibiting valuation metrics that surpass those seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble and even reach levels not observed since before the 1929 Great Depression. The S&P 500's price-to-book value ratio has hit a record 5.3 times, exceeding the Dot-Com peak, while the S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio reached a record 3.4 times, surpassing 2021 levels and the Dot-Com peak. The technology sector's price-to-sales ratio stands at an unprecedented 10 times, well above the 7.8 times recorded during the Dot-Com era. Market capitalization relative to US GDP has reached 211%, significantly higher than the 144% peak in 2000. The Nasdaq market cap relative to US GDP is at a record 105%, nearly double since the 2022 bear market and 40 percentage points above the Dot-Com peak. Additionally, the Nasdaq market cap relative to the US M2 money supply has hit 145%, exceeding the 2000 bubble peak. Concentration in the market has intensified, with the top 10 stocks comprising 40% of the S&P 500, compared to 27% during the Dot-Com peak, despite generating only 30% of total index earnings. Price-to-earnings ratios are elevated, with 27% of S&P 100 stocks having P/E ratios above 50 times, and 66 stocks exceeding 30 times. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.5 times, the second highest since 2000, compared to a 30-year average of 15.5 times. The geometric average of four long-term valuation metrics for the S&P 500 has reached 163%, more than three standard deviations above the mean and surpassing the Dot-Com peak of 126%. Morgan Stanley projects that artificial intelligence (AI) could add $920 billion in annual net benefits to S&P 500 companies, with a potential long-term value creation of $13 to $16 trillion, representing about 25% of the market capitalization. Despite this bullish outlook on AI-driven productivity gains, current market valuations already price in several years of AI adoption. The five largest US stocks are now 4.9 times larger than all small-cap stocks combined, a new record driven by rapid growth in tech companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. Analysts note that software vendors are likely to serve as platforms for generative AI functionality rather than being disrupted by it, with AI embedding expected to boost margins in leading SaaS businesses. Meanwhile, concerns about rising unemployment due to AI advances persist, with some forecasts suggesting unemployment could rise to 20% within the next year. Overall, the market's current valuation levels and concentration reflect unprecedented investor optimism amid rapid technological transformation.

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).

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