BREAKING (Hedgeye News): VIX not dead â 1M realized vol = top 5 in 75 years. $SPX implied vol at -39% discount. Stay in the game. https://t.co/OPfbEy0GYX
This may change by the close, but the $SPX 1-month realized volatility just reached its fourth-highest level in the past 75 years, on par with the US credit downgrade in 2011. Upside volatility is still volatility and rarely signals a healthy market. https://t.co/YSraRFcc48
$VIX gapped down through the 20 day. If we can keep the soundbites from POTUS to a minimum today, this will likely hold. We also wrote that it looked vulnerable to lower prices in our weekend report (see below). $VIX down 18% today since Mondays open. so many ways to win https://t.co/67PDESrWpm
The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is currently at a critical juncture as markets rebound following a significant decline. The $VIX has struggled to close below the 29 level, a threshold traders refer to as "The F*$k Bucket." Recently, the $VIX has dropped 18% since the start of the week and gapped below its 20-day moving average, suggesting potential for further declines if market conditions remain stable, including limited volatility from presidential soundbites. Despite this, the one-month realized volatility of the S&P 500 ($SPX) remains elevated, recently reaching its fourth-highest level in 75 years, comparable to the volatility seen during the 2011 US credit downgrade. This sustained high realized volatility contrasts with the $SPX implied volatility, which is currently trading at a 39% discount to realized volatility. Market analysts caution that elevated upside volatility still represents significant market uncertainty and rarely indicates a healthy market environment.