This Indicator Made Warren Buffett Famous — But It's Been Wrong About The Market For Years. https://t.co/w4AILoRioD
⚠️The US market concentration is BIBLICAL: The market cap weight of the top 10% largest US stocks hit ~76%, the biggest share EVER Since the Financial Crisis, the share has risen over 15 percentage pts Not even the 1930s saw such a big concentration👇 https://t.co/UFQd8puBkr
⚠️Warren Buffett over the last several quarters: - sold stocks on the net for 10 STRAIGHT quarters; - built a RECORD cash pile of $348 billion; - cash as % of assets hit an all-time high 29,9%; - has not bought back his stock for the 3rd quarter.👇 https://t.co/R8Esnze2JI
The Warren Buffett Indicator, which measures the ratio of US stock market capitalization to US GDP, has surged to 207%, marking the highest level in history and surpassing peaks seen during the 2000 Dot-Com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis. Historically, the 20-year average for this ratio is approximately 123%. Globally, the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio reached 117%, the second-highest ever recorded, exceeding levels seen at the Dot-Com bubble peak. Meanwhile, valuation metrics for major US indices have also hit elevated levels, with the S&P 500's next 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio climbing to 22, well above its median of around 16, and the Nasdaq 100's P/E ratio reaching 28. Market concentration in the US has intensified, with the top 10% of largest stocks accounting for about 76% of market capitalization, the largest share ever recorded and a rise of over 15 percentage points since the Global Financial Crisis. Warren Buffett himself has been reducing his stock holdings for ten consecutive quarters, accumulating a record cash reserve of $348 billion, which now represents 29.9% of his assets, and has refrained from stock buybacks for three quarters. Despite the indicator's prominence, some analysts note it has been an unreliable predictor of market movements in recent years.