
The Warren Buffett Indicator, which measures the ratio of US stock market capitalization to US GDP, has surged to 207%, marking the highest level in history and surpassing peaks seen during the 2000 Dot-Com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis. Historically, the 20-year average for this ratio is approximately 123%. Globally, the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio reached 117%, the second-highest ever recorded, exceeding levels seen at the Dot-Com bubble peak. Meanwhile, valuation metrics for major US indices have also hit elevated levels, with the S&P 500's next 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio climbing to 22, well above its median of around 16, and the Nasdaq 100's P/E ratio reaching 28. Market concentration in the US has intensified, with the top 10% of largest stocks accounting for about 76% of market capitalization, the largest share ever recorded and a rise of over 15 percentage points since the Global Financial Crisis. Warren Buffett himself has been reducing his stock holdings for ten consecutive quarters, accumulating a record cash reserve of $348 billion, which now represents 29.9% of his assets, and has refrained from stock buybacks for three quarters. Despite the indicator's prominence, some analysts note it has been an unreliable predictor of market movements in recent years.
This Indicator Made Warren Buffett Famous — But It's Been Wrong About The Market For Years. https://t.co/w4AILoRioD
⚠️The US market concentration is BIBLICAL: The market cap weight of the top 10% largest US stocks hit ~76%, the biggest share EVER Since the Financial Crisis, the share has risen over 15 percentage pts Not even the 1930s saw such a big concentration👇 https://t.co/UFQd8puBkr
⚠️Warren Buffett over the last several quarters: - sold stocks on the net for 10 STRAIGHT quarters; - built a RECORD cash pile of $348 billion; - cash as % of assets hit an all-time high 29,9%; - has not bought back his stock for the 3rd quarter.👇 https://t.co/R8Esnze2JI


