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Top stories

Ethereum Slips Under $4,200; Tom Lee Sees Near-Term Dip to $4,100

Ethereum Slips Under $4,200; Tom Lee Sees Near-Term Dip to $4,100

Authors

9

8 hours ago

Prediction markets for AI

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40%chance

389610126228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11008

10270

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.19%chance

8024167899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3663

1798

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71%chance

24121763130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9235

2592

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.87%chance

947615089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10712

9233

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34977

14290

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

463382160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3693

1551

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

12.09%chance

201282138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4175

1332

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

177213195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

3063

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79%chance

288174177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3090

899

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71%chance

228117803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1565

639

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

15.81%chance

13658406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2223

1429

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51%chance

20847953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

983

Latest stories

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Markets
Crypto
Ethereum Slips Under $4,200; Tom Lee Sees Near-Term Dip to $4,100
Authors
9
8 hours ago

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