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Prediction markets for Alps

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.3%chance

569655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?

Nov 11, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.04%chance

267654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2288

437

Will Alphabet Shutter Google Keep By December 31st, 2025?

Nov 27, 12:34 AMJan 9, 6:59 AM

13.7%chance

546626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3044

637

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

24.94%chance

191225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

946

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.58%chance

281223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

691

Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?

Dec 30, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77.76%chance

391199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

930

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.59%chance

301040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

838

Will Alphabet spin off Waymo by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 1:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.73%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1844

542

Nick Adams (Alpha Male) confirmed as ambassador to Malaysia this year?

Jul 10, 3:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.2%chance

10780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

957

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?

Sep 8, 3:56 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

63.32%chance

13367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

577

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