Arctic News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

123

A country declares war on Israel

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Iran loses territory

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Iran undergoes a regime change

Sudanese Civil War ends

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Israel loses territory

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any country leaves NATO

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

China formally declares war on another country

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Successful military coup in Venezuela

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on another country

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

USA leaves NATO

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on Iran

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

Iranian troops enter Israel

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A country declares war on United States

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Gunplay

On screen fatalities

Bond will be a man

Bond drives a car

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

London will appear on screen

World capital other than London appears on screen

Car chase scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Bond drinks a martini

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Blue-eyed Bond

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

Q appears

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Hacking electronics of some form

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Bond flys an aircraft

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

Bond parachutes

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Bond gets slapped

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Prison/jail scene

Black market trafficking

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond licks something

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Skydiving

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

Bond commits arson

Bond receives a gunshot wound

Oral sex

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Bond has facial hair

Terrorists

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

The title will refer to life and/or death

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Desert scene

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond plays poker

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Wilhelm scream

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

Bond will be in a submarine

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond is LQBTQ+

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

Jetpack

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Bond rides an animal

Nazis (neo- counts)

An EMP device plays a central role.

At least one named character below 18 years old

Canada is shown on screen

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

Orgy

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Underwater combat

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

Mexico is shown on screen

Cryptocurrency is referenced

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

Bond is blond

A hamburger appears on screen

Assplay

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Will feature something that can turn invisible

Bond goes to space

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

A pinball machine will appear.

Gay sex scene

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

Pirates

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Bond plays Russian roulette

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Feature Nightcore music

Bond uses chopsticks

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Supernatural entities

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Nuclear explosion

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

Vampires

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

Bond vapes

Bond won't be Caucasian

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

It will be directed by a woman

Bond dies

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

The fourth wall is broken

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Bond is vegan

Released in 2026

YES

YES

United States

France

United Kingdom

Canada

Norway

Iceland

YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_the_zone

Expansion of military bases (also in accordance with european goals)

Ensure future safety of arctic shipping lines

Legacy of expanding US territory (like Jefferson, Polk, and Johnson).

Mining for Rare earths, ores or coal

To show off and manifest his wannabe superpower status in the world.

Server farms and data centers (such as for AI)

52. State of America (or 51. if Canada successfully rejects)

Ending NATO by attacking allies

Help build Praxis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Praxis_(proposed_city)

Disrupt the GIUK Gap

YES

NO

NO

Public AGI Deployment

SpaceX Starship Mars Landing

Below 9.5 million km²

9.5 to under 9.9

9.9 to under 10.3