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Prediction markets for Austin
Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.1%chance
7847516
OptionVotes
1889
1308
OptionVotes
1716
898
OptionVotes
995
952
OptionVotes
1715
583
Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?
Apr 18, 11:18 PMJun 2, 12:59 AM
67.55%chance
131356
OptionVotes
1443
693
Conditional on at least dating 6 months before getting married, will Austin and Rachel still be married after 5 years?
Mar 26, 5:33 PMMar 26, 11:59 PM
95.49%chance
151254
OptionVotes
1753
891
Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?
Jan 18, 5:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
38.8%chance
19953
OptionVotes
1139
891
OptionVotes
1013
987
Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
Sep 25, 8:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.3%chance
18545
OptionVotes
1147
947
Will Houston -> Austin become an Interstate Highway by 2040?
Nov 30, 1:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
38.09%chance
2373
OptionVotes
1275
784
https://x.com/strangestloop will move from austin to the bay
Feb 15, 1:09 AMFeb 14, 11:59 PM
90%chance
1200
OptionVotes
300
33
Will Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
Jan 3, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.24%chance
3127
OptionVotes
182
55