OptionProbability
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/09 September 2025
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/12 December 2025
Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2026/03 Mar 2026
Recover starship by end of 2026/06 June 2026
Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/12 Dec 2026
Reuse a starship by end of 2026/12 Dec 2026
Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/09 Sep 2026
Recover starship by end of 2026/03 Mar 2026
Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
Reuse a starship by end of 2026/09 Sep 2026
Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/06 i.e.June 2027
Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/06 June 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2026/01 Jan 2026
Deploy satellites by end of 2026/03 i,e, Mar 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2025/12 Dec 2025
Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
Deploy satellites by end of 2026/01 i.e.Jan 2026
Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/03 March 2026
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/12 i,e, Dec 2025
Recover starship by end of 2026/01 Jan 2026
Reuse a starship by end of 2026/06 June 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025
Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
Launch from a different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/12 Dec 2025
Catch booster on different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/11 i.e.Nov 2025
Reuse a starship by end of 2026/03 March 2026
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/11 Nov 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/10 Oct 2025
Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2025/10 i,e, Oct 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
Reuse a starship by end of 2025/12 December 2025
Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/12 December 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/09 September 2025
Reuse a starship by end of 2025/09 September 2025
Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/09 September 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/08 August 2025
Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2024
Reach orbit by end of January 2025
Reach orbit by end of February 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/03 March 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/04 April 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/05 May 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2024
Deploy satellites by end of January 2025
Deploy satellites by end of February 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/3 March 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/4 April 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/5 May 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/3 March 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/4 April 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/5 May 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/06 June 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/07 July 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025
100
64
62
59
57
56
54
50
49
47
44
42
38
35
30
28
27
22
20
19
18
17
16
15
13
12
11
10
8
6
5
4
3
1
0
Luna (Earth's Moon)
Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)
Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)
Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)
Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)
Ocean platform (any site)
Other
Mars
9
2
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